Listen below or on the go via Apple Podcasts and Spotify
What’s next for oil and gold after Iran strikes. (0:17) February payrolls seen up 60K. (1:48) Berkshire Hathaway cash pile grows as Buffett exits. (2:50)
The U.S. and Israel launched strikes against Iran on Saturday, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other leadership figures
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said Sunday “the most-intense offensive operation” ever is coming to target Israel and U.S. Mideast bases.
President Donald Trump responded with a warning of overwhelming retaliation if Iran strikes U.S. forces, but also told The Atlantic that he would be talking to Iran’s new leadership.
With markets closed over the weekend, Monday is likely to be hectic on Wall Street — and oil is the first place traders will look.
Polymarket has a 93% chance of WTI crude (CL1:COM) (USO) moving higher on Monday and a 77% chance oil will be above $80/barrel at the end of March. That’s up 27 percentage points from before the weekend and would be a gain of more than 19% from where it sits now at $67.02.
There’s also a 50% chance that crude is above $90/barrel on the final trading day of the month.
Separately, OPEC+ has agreed to raise output by 206K bpd in April. That’s larger than the 137K monthly boosts announced late last year, but small relative to potential disruptions in the Middle East.
Crypto markets also offered a weekend tell: gold-linked tokens implied gold would open higher, with prices up roughly 1%–2% versus Friday’s close.
And regional markets reacted quickly. Saudi Arabia dropped 2.2%, its steepest one-day fall since April, wiping out its gains for the year. Losses were tempered by a rise in Saudi Aramco, though. Egypt’s main stock gauge fell 2.5%.
Looking to the week ahead, the February jobs report is due Friday. Economists expect nonfarm payrolls rose by about 60K, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3%.
Wells Fargo economists say that while “some stabilization in demand for workers is evident,” a range of indicators — including JOLTS and consumers’ perceptions of job availability — still point to a gradual loosening in labor market conditions rather than a renewed acceleration in hiring.
The earnings calendar is thinning out, with about 10 S&P 500 companies reporting this week.
Highlights include CrowdStrike (CRWD) on Tuesday, Broadcom (AVGO) on Wednesday, and Costco (COST) and Alibaba (BABA) on Thursday.
Also in the news this weekend, OpenAI (OPENAI) said it does not believe rival Anthropic (ANTHRO) should be designated a “supply chain risk” by the U.S. government — even as OpenAI announced its own agreement with the Pentagon to deploy advanced AI systems in classified environments.
On Friday, President Trump said government agencies should not use Anthropic amid a standoff between the company and the DOD over surveillance and the use of AI in fully autonomous weapons.
And Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B) reported another surge in its cash pile in Q4, even as operating earnings fell amid insurance headwinds — in what was Warren Buffett’s last quarter as CEO.
In his first annual letter to shareholders, CEO Greg Abel signaled a more cautious posture: reining in growth in insurance underwriting to protect margins, and holding back on utility expansion to meet AI-related power demand unless returns are compelling for shareholders.
And for income investors. Allstate (ALL) goes ex-dividend Monday, paying out on April 1 — yes, April Fool’s Day.
Lam Research (LRCX) goes ex-dividend Wednesday, with an April 8 payout date.
And on Thursday, Cigna (CI) and Qualcomm (QCOM) go ex-dividend. Cigna pays out March 19, and Qualcomm pays out March 26.
Read the full article here
