{"id":51069,"date":"2023-11-28T18:23:22","date_gmt":"2023-11-28T18:23:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/prosfunds.com\/finance\/wealth\/treasury-yields-without-the-hype-a-chart-analysis\/"},"modified":"2023-11-28T18:23:23","modified_gmt":"2023-11-28T18:23:23","slug":"treasury-yields-without-the-hype-a-chart-analysis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prosfunds.com\/?p=51069","title":{"rendered":"Treasury Yields Without The Hype: A Chart Analysis"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Inflation numbers and treasury yields, it\u2019s a relationship like no other. Are they married to one another? Are they just friends? Who knows?<\/p>\n

Whatever the case, it\u2019s a fact that the yield on the 10-Year Treasury Note is already back to the level it showed just late last week.<\/p>\n

When the consumer price index Tuesday morning came in with \u201cless-than-expected\u201d figures, indicating a possible slight shrinkage of inflation, Treasuries found buyers on the expectation that the Fed would now be done with rate rising and perhaps on the verge of rate cutting.<\/p>\n

Stock buyers displayed exuberance, the Nasdaq 100 made it back up to the summertime highs and then, today, sold off again along new selling in Treasury bonds.<\/p>\n

Treasury Yields Charts.<\/h2>\n

Yields on the longer-term Treasury bond, the 30-year variety, look like this:<\/p>\n

<\/fbs-ad><\/p>\n

After peaking in mid-October at 5% (the chart shows basis points), bonds rallied late in that month and then continued into November\u2019s CPI release that came on Monday. After dropping to nearly 4.6%, the 30-Year yield today made it back up to almost 4.7% as some investors developed a few second thoughts.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s the yield chart for the 10-Year Treasury Note:<\/p>\n

You can see that it\u2019s the same basic pattern as the 30-Year but with slightly lower yields. The T-Note yield did not quite hit 5% in October but came close and has now dropped to 4.535%. It\u2019s standard stuff for the 10-Year to offer a somewhat lower yield than the 30-Year \u2014 investors are rewarded for staying longer.<\/p>\n

The yield chart for the 3-month Treasury bill is here:<\/p>\n

T-bill yields reached as high as 5.35% in early October and have now dropped to 5.255%. Note that back in mid-March, the yield hit a low of 4.3%. It\u2019s come a long way in a short time.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s an unusual phenomenon for this very short-term Treasury vehicle to offer a yield greater than both the 30-Year Bond and the 10-Year Note. This is the reason for references in the financial media to the strangeness of the \u201cyield curve\u201d \u2014 fears of greater inflation and possibly higher interest rates remain.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s the daily price chart for the benchmark bond fund, the iShares 20+-Year U. S. Treasury Bond ETF:<\/p>\n

Buyers began to show up in late October and then in substantial numbers by early November. The bond rally has been strong enough to climb above the declining 50-day moving average (the blue line) and close higher for at least 3 sessions. The price remains below a down trending 200-day moving average (the red line.)<\/p>\n

Of course, it\u2019s more than just the inflation reading. There\u2019s a sense that the U. S. political dynamic is a problem for the bond market as the nation heads into the 2024 election season.<\/p>\n

I am no longer on Twitter \u2014 I\u2019ve moved to Threads.net.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Read the full article here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Inflation numbers and treasury yields, it\u2019s a relationship like no other. Are they married to one another? Are they just friends? Who knows? Whatever the case, it\u2019s a fact that the yield on the 10-Year Treasury Note is already back to the level it showed just late last week. When the consumer price index Tuesday […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":51070,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"content-type":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-51069","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-wealth"},"yoast_head":"\nTreasury Yields Without The Hype: A Chart Analysis | Prosfunds<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Inflation numbers and treasury yields, it\u2019s a relationship like no other. Are they married to one another? Are they just friends? Who knows? 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