{"id":14032,"date":"2023-09-20T02:47:39","date_gmt":"2023-09-20T02:47:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/prosfunds.com\/markets\/even-after-instacart-ipo-pop-rival-doordash-might-be-the-better-buy\/"},"modified":"2023-09-20T02:47:40","modified_gmt":"2023-09-20T02:47:40","slug":"even-after-instacart-ipo-pop-rival-doordash-might-be-the-better-buy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prosfunds.com\/?p=14032","title":{"rendered":"Even After Instacart IPO Pop, Rival DoorDash Might Be The Better Buy"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>Instacart, the grocery delivery company, aimed to go public Tuesday for $30 a share \u2014 valuing the company at $9.9 billion \u2014 a whopping 74% below its peak private market valuation.<\/p>\n<p>When its shares began trading Tuesday, they opened at $42 a share \u2014 valuing the company at $14 billion. This 40% opening pop struck me as bullish for reopening the IPO market.<\/p>\n<p>However, it still represented a 64% discount from Instacart\u2019s peak valuation of $39 billion in 2021. But that was before, the stock fell from its peak before the close \u2014 to end a mere 12% above $30.<\/p>\n<p>Does that make Instacart\u2019s stock a screaming buy? I see three reasons investors would be better off buying stock in Instacart\u2019s rival, DoorDash \u2014 which trades at roughly $80 a share and is valued at $31.8 billion:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Faster growth. <\/strong>DoorDash\u2019s revenue increased 33% in the second quarter while Instacart\u2019s rose 15%, according to <em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2023\/09\/18\/instacart-prices-ipo-at-30-a-share.html\">CNBC<\/em>.<\/li>\n<li><strong>More room for expansion. <\/strong>Thanks to its acquisition in Europe and its efforts to form new partnerships, DoorDash has significant room for future growth. By contrast, Instacart\u2019s growth may have peaked \u2014 unless it expands into new markets or wins against Walmart.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Lower valuation. <\/strong>DoorDash\u2019s price-to-sales ratio of 4.24 is considerably below Instacart\u2019s 4.9 \u2014 adjusting for its 40% opening pop. DoorDash\u2019s lower valuation and greater growth potential suggests it is undervalued relative to Instacart.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><fbs-ad position=\"inread\" progressive=\"\" ad-id=\"article-0-inread\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"presentation\"><\/fbs-ad><\/p>\n<p>Instacart sees a bright future. As CEO Fidji Simo said, \u201cAt Instacart, we know technology will play a crucial part in transforming the largest retail category in the world. We also know that the future of grocery should belong to the people who make it special today \u2014 and we can help them continue to innovate,\u201d according to <em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.sec.gov\/Archives\/edgar\/data\/1579091\/000119312523221345\/d55348ds1.htm\">MapleBear\u2019s S1<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>DoorDash \u2014 whose shares had risen 67% for the year as of Monday \u2014 envisions continued growth. As CEO Tony Xu said, \u201cI think the world only tends to want to go faster. Customer expectations tend to only go in one direction when it comes to something like delivery, whether that\u2019s with food or other types of items. There\u2019s a lot of work and the roadmap ahead is quite lengthy,\u201d according to the <em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/doordash-delivery-earnings-quarter-1b6f2fe53788342ea93903be437e39a9\">Associated Press<\/em>.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Instacart\u2019s IPO<\/h2>\n<p>Instacart operates a network of 600,000 freelance shopper who deliver and pick up more than 80,000 stores \u2014 representing 85% of U.S. grocers.<\/p>\n<p>The company \u2014 which says its 7.7 million active customers spend about $317 per month on the platform \u2014 also provides smart carts and electronic shelf tags in stores, and sells online ads to food companies and retailers, according to the <em>Associated Press<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>Instacart priced its shares to open trading at $30 a share \u2014 valuing the grocery delivery company at $9.9 billion<em>, <\/em><em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2023\/09\/18\/instacart-prices-ipo-at-30-a-share.html\">CNBC<\/em> reported. While growing far more slowly than DoorDash, Instacart is solidly profitable.<\/p>\n<p>When the stock opened for trading Tuesday afternoon, it performed as I had expected.<\/p>\n<p>While I did not have a specific percentage pop in mind, I thought Instacart shares would rise significantly after they began trading \u2014 with help from large investors and its underwriters.<\/p>\n<p>Their aim was to reopen the IPO market which has been mostly shuttered since late 2021 when fear of rising interest rates turned off investors\u2019 appetite for that kind of risk.<\/p>\n<p>Despite the post-IPO pop, Instacart\u2019s growth is slowing down. Its revenue increased 15% in the second quarter to $716 million, decelerating from 40% growth in the year-earlier period \u201cand about 600% in the early months of the pandemic,\u201d noted <em>CNBC<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>Instacart\u2019s slowdown in total order value does not bode well for investors. The company\u2019s gross transaction volume rose only 4% in the first six months of 2023 \u2014 way down from the 15% GTV volume growth it experienced in the first half of 2022, the <em>Journal<\/em> reported.<\/p>\n<p>Instacart\u2019s S1 blamed inflation for its slowing GTV growth. However, there is more to the story \u2014 since Instacart appears to be losing market share to Walmart. The Bentonville, Ark.-based giant retailer\u2019s share of online groceries increased from 54% in July 2022 to 62% in July 2023, according to <em>YipitData<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>The good news is Instacart is profitable. The company reduced headcount in mid-2022 and lowered customer and shopper support costs. Instacart became profitable in the second quarter of 2022, and in the latest quarter reported $114 million in net income \u2014 way above the $8 million in profit it posted the year before.<\/p>\n<p>Founded in 2012, Instacart delivers groceries from chains including Kroger, Costco and Wegmans. It also sells advertising which accounts for about a quarter of its revenue and most of its profits. In a September 18 note to clients, Bernstein analyst Nikhil Devnani estimated advertising \u201clikely accounts for most of Instacart\u2019s profits, depending what margin ads earn,\u201d the <em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/finance\/investing\/instacart-ipo-is-an-expensive-lesson-for-venture-firms-af82064?mod=hp_lead_pos6\">Wall Street Journal<\/em> reported.<\/p>\n<p>Unless Instacart can increase growth in grocery orders, its ad business is unlikely to accelerate. Advertising-industry analyst Brian Wieser noted Instacart\u2019s ability to achieve faster ad revenue growth will depend \u201cto a significant degree\u201d on reacceleration of the company\u2019s GTV, the <em>Journal<\/em> reported.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">DoorDash\u2019s Performance And Prospects<\/h2>\n<p>DooDash\u2019s latest earnings report revealed faster growth and a forecast for more. DoorDash defied inflation and restaurant reopenings to report expectations-beating results while raising its 2023 guidance on strong demand, according to the <em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/doordash-dash-q2-earnings-report-2023-c331cd05\">Wall Street Journal<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>DoorDash delivers a more diversified set of products than Instacart. While starting as a food delivery app \u2014 and now leading the U.S. in that category \u2014 during the pandemic DoorDash expanded into delivering \u201ceverything from groceries to alcohol,\u201d the <em>Journal<\/em> noted.<\/p>\n<p>As CFO Ravi Inukonda said, DoorDash is \u201cbecoming more of a utility and habit than you think.\u201d DoorDash\u2019s monthly order frequency reached a new high in the second quarter, surpassing pandemic peaks, the <em>Journal<\/em> wrote.<\/p>\n<p>Here are the highlights from DoorDash\u2019s second quarter:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Q2 Revenue grew 33%<\/strong> to $2.13 billion \u2014 $70 million above the FactSet consensus.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Q2 order count rose 25% <\/strong>to 532 million \u2014 ahead of Wall Street\u2019s projections.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Q2 transaction value increased 26% <\/strong>to $16.47 billion \u2014 also beating expectations<\/li>\n<li><strong>Q2 loss narrowed. <\/strong>DoorDash\u2019s net loss fell from $263 million in Q2 2022 to $172 million \u2014 \u201cslightly better than what analysts had expected,\u201d the <em>Journal<\/em> reported.<\/li>\n<li><strong>2023 transaction value guidance<\/strong> up to a range between $64.2 billion and $65.2 billion in 2023 \u2014 above analysts\u2019 forecast of \u201caround $64 billion.\u201d<\/li>\n<li><strong>2023 adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization raised<\/strong> to a range from $750 million to $1.05 billion \u2014 the midpoint of which is $74 million ahead of analysts expectation of $826 million.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>In addition to more efficient operations, DoorDash is benefiting from its acquisition of European food-delivery company Wolt about which I wrote in August 2022. Wolt helped raise DoorDash\u2019s revenue, order volume and transaction value.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Why DoorDash Stock Could Be A Better Investment<\/h2>\n<p>DoorDash\u2019s stronger growth prospects \u2014 abetted by Xu\u2019s outstanding management of the company since he founded it \u2014 should propel growth and boost its stock.<\/p>\n<p><em>TipRanks<\/em> sees 22% price appreciation in its stock based on 20 Wall Street analysts average 12 month price target of $98.47.<\/p>\n<p>Morningstar sees DoorDash as a market leader with significant competitive advantages and high growth potential. As its Senior Equity Analyst Ali Mogharabi wrote, DoorDash leads Uber Eats and Grubub in the U.S. online food aggregator market and is \u201ctrying to attract a larger piece of what we estimate could be $1 trillion worth of goods and services by 2025 to its platform.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Mogharabi gives DoorDash a \u201cnarrow moat rating\u201d because it \u201cbenefits from the network effects between merchants, dashers, and consumers, plus intangible assets, in the form of data.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Unless Instacart can deliver groceries more effectively and efficiently than rivals such as Walmart, I do not envision is getting anywhere close to DoorDash\u2019s revenue growth rate.<\/p>\n<p>Instacart stock \u2014 which opened at $40 on Tuesday afternoon closed at $33.70. This 12% rise for the day strikes me as less than exciting for the IPO market.<\/p>\n<p>I would avoid investing in Instacart shares after this first-day pop until the delivery service proves it can grow faster.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/petercohan\/2023\/09\/19\/tony-xu-could-send-doordash-stock-higher-than-instacarts\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Instacart, the grocery delivery company, aimed to go public Tuesday for $30 a share \u2014 valuing the company at $9.9 billion \u2014 a whopping 74% below its peak private market valuation. When its shares began trading Tuesday, they opened at $42 a share \u2014 valuing the company at $14 billion. This 40% opening pop struck [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":14033,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"content-type":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[33],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-14032","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-markets"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Even After Instacart IPO Pop, Rival DoorDash Might Be The Better Buy | Prosfunds<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Instacart, the grocery delivery company, aimed to go public Tuesday for $30 a share \u2014 valuing the company at $9.9 billion \u2014 a whopping 74% below its peak\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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