{"id":12427,"date":"2023-09-16T08:09:20","date_gmt":"2023-09-16T08:09:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/prosfunds.com\/news\/marketmind-will-cpi-fit-the-fed-on-hold-narrative\/"},"modified":"2023-09-16T08:09:21","modified_gmt":"2023-09-16T08:09:21","slug":"marketmind-will-cpi-fit-the-fed-on-hold-narrative","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prosfunds.com\/?p=12427","title":{"rendered":"Marketmind: Will CPI fit the Fed-on-hold narrative?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Kevin Buckland<\/p>\n

The marquee event of the week for most in the market is almost upon us: U.S. CPI.<\/p>\n

Recent remarks from Fed officials suggest another pause is the most likely outcome of next week’s rate-setting meeting, and economists in a Reuters poll concur, with 94 of 97 ticking the “no change” box.<\/p>\n

However, the data may not support the dominant view. Already the estimates paint a complicated picture: annual core inflation is expected to ease to 4.3% from 4.7%, but headline inflation is predicted to rise to 3.6% from 3.2%.<\/p>\n

Moreover, the labour market remains tight by many measures and the climb in is a concern.<\/p>\n

About one in five of the economists in the Reuters poll say another hike is coming by year-end, which gels with what Fed chief Jerome Powell said in Jackson Hole about the potential need for more tightening.<\/p>\n

It’s a crucial week and a half for the world’s biggest central banks, with the Fed decision on Wednesday next week followed by the Bank of England on Thursday and the Bank of Japan on Friday.<\/p>\n

For Andrew Bailey and his cohorts, today will be a busy one for analysing data that includes GDP and factory production.<\/p>\n

But starting things off, of course, is the ECB tomorrow. And markets have had a big change of heart on the outcome over the past 24 hours, with what had been judged a coin toss for a quarter-point rate hike jumping to 75% odds after a Reuters report that the central bank expects inflation will stay above 3% next year in its updated forecasts, far exceeding the 2% target.<\/p>\n

For currency markets in Asian time, the dollar was on the front foot, clawing back some of the overnight weakness against the euro and climbing back toward a 10-month top versus the yen.<\/p>\n

Sagging stocks though don’t bode well for the European open, as Asian investors continued the sell-off seen on Wall Street. China set the pace, with mainland blue chips down about 1%. <\/p>\n

Key developments that could influence markets on Wednesday: <\/p>\n

– UK GDP, industrial production (July)<\/p>\n

– EZ industrial production (July)<\/p>\n

– US CPI (Aug) <\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Read the full article here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Kevin Buckland The marquee event of the week for most in the market is almost upon us: U.S. CPI. Recent remarks from Fed officials suggest another pause is the most likely outcome of next week’s rate-setting meeting, and economists in a Reuters poll […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3758,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"content-type":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[38],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-12427","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-news"},"yoast_head":"\nMarketmind: Will CPI fit the Fed-on-hold narrative? | Prosfunds<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Kevin Buckland The marquee event of the week for most in the market is almost upon us: U.S.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/prosfunds.com\/?p=12427\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Marketmind: Will CPI fit the Fed-on-hold narrative? 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